Imagining a safe and just transformation of the climate in the Amazon Rainforest

A liveable future depends on the interdependence of human and more-than-human wellbeing in tandem with a resilient earth system.

In 2023, a team of leading scientists including Johan Rockström – Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Joyeeta Gupta – Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam and, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education – published a groundbreaking piece of new research in Nature.

Entitled ‘Safe and just Earth system boundaries’, the research focuses on how we can stay within five of the nine planetary boundaries critical to stabilising the Earth system: Climate, Biosphere, Freshwater, Nutrients and Aerosols.

What might safe and just earth system boundaries look and feel like?

We were thrilled to partner with Future Earth, Earth Commission and leading scientists to begin to explore what these ‘safe and just earth system boundaries’ might look and feel like.

Exploring urban spaces, farmland, deserts and all in between we visualised the transformative potential of these sites if safe and just earth system boundaries were implemented and maintained.

In developing these visions we asked: What could be the social, cultural and economic benefits of living alongside a river whose flow has not been altered? How would the landscape change if shifted from our current overuse of fertilisers? How will we journey and commute through a thriving urban metropolis?

“If our future is to be liveable we need targets beyond climate. Safety and Justice must be accounted for.

A safe and just transformation to a manageable planet, requires urgent, collective action by multiple actors, especially in government and business to act within Earth system boundaries to keep our life support system of the planet intact.

Stewardship of the global commons has never been more urgent or important.”

 

Wendy Broadgate
Earth Commission Executive Director, and Global Hub Director (Sweden), Future Earth

Imagining a safe and just transformation of nutrient management in the Netherlands

Visualising Potential

Working closely with our partners we wanted to ensure these visualisations remained open and non-prescriptive. We visualised one potential route, not the route, toward a future that fits within earth system boundaries. And rather than directly translate the data, we engaged our expertise in worldbuilding to draw out the contextual, social, lived experience of that journey toward a safe and just world.

“Avoiding the displacement of large numbers of people from uninhabitable zones, the collapse of ecosystems and the destruction of our life support systems is not a question of “us and them” or something “for the next CEO to deal with”, it’s about now, and about upholding dignified lives, safe markets, and demand for business continuity.”

 

Joyeeta Gupta and Johan Rockström
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting. Published 17 January 2024

Impact

These visualisations served to stimulate and inspire international leaders and CEOs at Davos with a sense of what could be possible.

We are continuing our partnership with Earth Commission to further deepen our understanding of what interspecies, intergenerational, intragenerational justice might look and feel like.

Imagining a safe and just transformation of aerosols in Delhi

Acknowledgements

With thanks to Maya Rebermark for commissioning this important project.

Special thanks to the authors whose rich and pioneering research set our work in motion:

​​Johan Rockström, Joyeeta Gupta, Dahe Qin, Steven J. Lade, Jesse F. Abrams, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Diana M. Liverman, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Ben Stewart-Koster, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena M. Bennett, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy Broadgate, Pamela A. Green, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Christopher Ndehedehe, Simona Pedde, Juan Rocha, Marten Scheffer, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Wim de Vries, Cunde Xiao, Chi Xu, Xinwu Xu, Noelia Zafra-Calvo & Xin Zhang